Home / Blog
New NAFTA Promises Modest Gains for the US Economy, Says New Trade Report
25 Jun, 2019

In the wake of the Mueller report, the US International Trade Commission's report detailing the impact of the US-Mexico-Canada Agreement also known as the USMCA on the US economy. The report predicts less-than-stellar gains for the US, undercutting the Trump’s administration’s rationale for pushing for a renegotiation of the previous North American Free Trade Agreement, NAFTA, according to a popular trade lawyer in Canada.

Before the report, there have been rising doubts in different quarters as to the gains the US really stand to benefit from the USMCA. After being delayed for months majorly because of the government shutdown in the US, the 379-page trade commission tome finally landed.


The new findings are significant in that it represents a neutral assessment of the economic gains of the new deal which have been primarily opposed by Democrats who unlike Trump does not see any big deal out of the new deal. According to the US International Trade Commission, the deal would boost the US economy but only modestly. There will be a 0.35% GDP increase and 0.12 job growth representing about 176,000 new jobs.

“That’s it? All this time and all this headache, and the disruption to the North American supply chain and to the companies for the sake of 176,000 jobs?”, Cyndee Todgham Cherniak, a Toronto trade lawyer had said, far from being impressed. The commission also predicted US exports to Canada to increase by $19.1 billion while imports from Canada will be at the same $19.1 billion.

According to Todgham, the figures are identical and sort of negates the rationale for calling for a renegotiation of the North American Trade Agreement, NAFTA, which had been hinged on the belief that the US was at the receiving end of an unfair trade deficit that should be corrected.


Canadian Foreign Affairs Minister, Chrystia Freeland who had always maintained her stance against the US argument of facing a trade deficit was also not impressed by anything in the new deal. While she felt that the new deal is a win-win according to the new report, she still railed against the “illegal” tariffs the US government had imposed on Canadian steel and aluminum.

While the impact on the auto sector was quite positive, it’s also believed that the new deal might make vehicles costlier thanks to the new content rules that inhibit the use of cheaper, foreign, auto parts that President Trump has spoken against as killing jobs in the US.


The major areas of contention in the new deal are the rules of origin that dictate what a North-American made auto really is. The new deal will increase regional value content (RVC) requirements amongst other requirements. It will increase the production of auto parts creating new jobs in the process. It will, however, lead to a slight increment in vehicle costs and another slight decrease in vehicle consumption in the US.

According to Dan Ujczo, a Columbus trade lawyer who also happens to be a Canada-US specialist, the US is never going to get any better deal with Mexico and Canada than what the current North American Trade Agreement, NAFTA, holds.



Are you struggling to get real value from your supply chain or your logistics service providers? BYEXPRESS Worldwide holds a lot of promise. As the largest air and ocean logistics marketplace, we are committed to helping you make the most of your investments into transportation. With hundreds of partner companies, we are able to bring businesses and organizations reliable logistic services tailored to meet their core needs.

Just log on our website at with details of your shipment to get started and get free quotes from multiple carriers. You can also contact us at for additional info.